Is Max Verstappen Mercedes-Bound? The Story Behind the Speculation

Jay Oh

Just up until only two years ago, even the concept of Max Verstappen to Mercedes felt impossible. However, behind the scenes in Brackley and Milton Keynes, serious conversations are emerging—suggesting this blockbuster switch may be more than just a simple speculation.

Mercedes-AMG team principal Toto Wolff recently stirred the pot by confirming that exploratory dialogue has taken place between his team and Verstappen’s camp.

“You make it sound like we have been asking, ‘When do you want to join and what are the terms?’… I want to just have the conversations behind closed doors, not in town halls,” Wolff remarked when pressed about the topic.

He was quick to play down any formal pursuit, but the candid admission was enough to send what once started as a simple fan rumor due to Red Bull’s recent downfall into a proper speculation headlining in the mainstream media.

Still, the Austrian executive hasn’t shied away from the appeal of a driver like Verstappen. “I would love to have him. If you have a good car, good drivers will want to come.”

Despite that, he was clear about his current stance: “I’m super happy with the line-up we have, I couldn’t wish for anything better.”

Verstappen, who is under contract with Red Bull until 2028, is believed to have a performance-related exit clause—reportedly activated if he himself drops below the top three in the Drivers’ standings and/or Red Bull drops below the top four in the Constructors’. As of now, both the Dutchman and the Austrian team are just about holding on to third and fourth in their respective championships, and seem to be on a downward performance spiral with McLaren and Mercedes flying ahead and Ferrari catching their on-track pace quickly.

George Russell also gave his take on the potential transfer. Russell, now the senior driver at Mercedes following Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari, appeared to be unfazed by all of the chatter.

“The likelihood of me leaving Mercedes is exceptionally low,” Russell noted to the press. “I welcome a challenge.” He further added that conversations about his future with the team are ongoing and unaffected by outside rumors.

Lewis Hamilton, when asked whether Verstappen should consider a switch, responded, “I would recommend Mercedes.” Reflecting on his own career path, he acknowledged, “Red Bull have obviously done an amazing job and Max has done an amazing job there. But I would say yes.”

Verstappen, meanwhile, has remained predictably noncommittal, at least in front of the media. “No, I don’t know. It’s still a very long season,” he responded when asked whether he was considering a move. On his current Red Bull deal, he noted, “[that] had always been the intention”—but he’s also emphasized his independence in these decisions, stating simply, “The more I say about it, the more it will be reported in the media. And I certainly do not want that. I determine my own future.”

Despite all this, the multi-world champion has admitted to having a sit-down with Wolff earlier this year, adding fuel to the fire. “It was our first real conversation since 2021 … We also talked a little bit about the future perspective… there’s more than just ‘project Formula 1’.”

At the heart of this intrigue is the looming 2026 regulation overhaul. Red Bull is preparing to field its own in-house power unit for the first time, while Mercedes—renowned for its engineering depth—is said to be developing a package that could shift the performance balance. For Verstappen, long-term competitiveness matters. If it becomes clearer that Red Bull isn’t making any decisive progress towards the incoming season while Mercedes look to be a stronger team, that could be enough to tip the scales.

In the midst of all the rumors and speculation, Red Bull have taken a clear stance, with Christian Horner insisting that Verstappen isn’t going anywhere. The team principal reaffirmed that the Dutchman remains “100% committed to the team.” Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko has echoed that sentiment on several different occasions, emphasizing that Verstappen’s loyalty to Red Bull remains unchanged. But behind that confident front, Red Bull is under mounting pressure. Technical issues, internal politics, and the lingering scrutiny surrounding the team’s leadership have introduced an unfamiliar instability.

Mercedes, meanwhile, has another ace up its sleeve: Andrea Kimi Antonelli. The 18-year old is seen as a future star, and Wolff has been publicly adamant about giving him the space to grow.

“We have a long-term plan for Kimi,” he’s repeated. As Antonelli has just been signed in the active 2025 season and with Wolff’s affirming statements, it is unlikely that the young Italian will be the driver to exit the team if the speculation with Verstappen turns out to be true. In fact, Wolff seems even more eager to have a young talent like Antonelli remain with them, as he had missed out on a chance to sign a 17-year-old Verstappen in 2015 in favor of keeping both Rosberg and Hamilton for the year. Due to this, Red Bull signed him to junior team Toro Rosso instead, and it is clear that Wolff regrets missing out on such a generational talent. This cements Antonelli’s place in the team for a while longer, with it being almost certain that Wolff will not take the gamble to miss out on another young talent once more.

So, is Verstappen Mercedes-bound? Currently, the answer is no, with the close contact journalists reporting that it is still but an idea, albeit a massive one—nothing has been signed as of now, and there has been no official statements. However, the foundation for a dramatic shift is already in place. Mercedes has not renewed Russell’s contract which expires this season, and is working towards a potentially championship-winning 2026 package, not to mention the financial clout to make it happen. Verstappen has contractual flexibility, and despite his support for his current team, he evidently has a growing awareness of Red Bull’s vulnerabilities and a potential exit clause to free him of any obligation to stay put should better prospects arise.

For now, Verstappen remains the centerpiece of Red Bull’s ambitions, and has been for several years. But if results falter and Mercedes’ vision proves compelling, the unthinkable could become reality.